Opportunity in Israel 1/29/2003 THE SUCCESS of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Likud Party in Israel's parliamentary elections yesterday concludes only the first stage in the complex business of forming the next government. Because of the fragmented nature of party politics in Israel, several disparate coalitions could be formed in coming days, and it is unlikely that the government eventually cobbled together will be defined by ideological coherence. There was a defensible logic to President Bush's refusal during the Israeli political campaign to pursue his so-called road map for renewed steps toward a two-state solution for the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Now that the election is over, Bush ought to seize an unusually opportune moment to make clear to Israelis that the United States is about to get serious about pulling the two peoples back from the abyss. Bush has said he wants to help bring about the two-state solution he envisions. If he demonstrates that he is prepared to back up his words with sustained US efforts to shepherd the two sides away from violent conflict and into political negotiations, he can have a potent, positive effect on the forging of Israel's next coalition government. It is an open secret that Sharon does not want to be forced to govern with a small, unstable majority dependent on far-right and Orthodox religious parties. He wants another national unity government that includes the Labor Party. Last night, however, the current leader of Labor, Avram Mitzna, the mayor of Haifa, repeated his earlier vows not to enter a such a coalition, saying that he would not agree to ''act as a fig leaf for Sharon's failed policies.'' However, with Labor falling from 26 Knesset seats to fewer than 20 - the worst showing in the party's history - other prominent figures in Labor will be tempted to join the secular Shinui party, which more than doubled its previous tally of six seats, in calling for a moderate secular coalition. Mitzna and others in Labor and the Israeli peace camp say the decision of Shimon Peres, the Labor Party's former leader, to participate in the outgoing Sharon government only strengthened Sharon's hand in conducting a purely negative policy of repressive retaliation against Palestinian attacks. The result for Labor, those critics say, was to leave the party politically, if not morally, bankrupt. Nevertheless, the pressure for Labor to enter another unity government will be intense. The daily newspaper Ha'aretz reported that Sharon's aides are even talking about offering Mitzna a revolving turn in the prime minister's office if he will join a governing coalition. Bush can help shape a moderate Israeli government disposed to compromise with the Palestinians if he leaves no doubt that Washington's considerable influence will be used to usher Israelis and Palestinians back to the bargaining table. © Copyright 2003 Globe Newspaper Company.