A predictable end

The Baltimore Sun

A predictable end

August 24, 2003

THE RELATIVE calm that has pervaded Israel and the Palestinian territories this summer masked an undercurrent of violence. The 90-day cease-fire adopted by the Palestinian militant groups of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade in June included a caveat: Any attack by the Israeli military would be returned. Although it benefited greatly from the cessation of violence, Israel considered the cease-fire an agreement between the militants and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. As long as he refrained from dismantling the terrorist groups as required under the "road map" for peace, Israel said it would continue its pursuit of terrorist operatives to prevent attacks and protect its citizens.

The two sides adhered to their respective plans of action with deadly precision and a predictable end. The series of strikes and reprisals, culminating with last week's bombing of a Jerusalem bus by a Palestinian suicide bomber and the Israeli assassination of a Hamas leader, has shattered the tenuous peace process. Tanks returned to the outskirts of Palestinian cities, a shootout at a Nablus hospital left two Al Aqsa members dead, and Islamic militants revoked the cease-fire and vowed revenge.

And now Israelis and Palestinians are bracing for a return to the nearly nonstop violence that has left more than 800 Israelis and 2,400 Palestinians dead over three years. Until there is a credible and systematic assault on the militants, Israel won't be satisfied - or convinced - that Palestinian officials want an end to terror themselves. If Mr. Abbas and his security chief had acted early on in this interim period of calm, Israel would have been hard-pressed to defend its isolated assaults on militant operatives.

Israel, however, must realize after these many months and scores of dead that its strong-arm tactics alone won't end the reign of terror against its people. Let's not forget that before the cease-fire, Israeli forces occupied the major Palestinian cities and towns on the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

At the same time, the Palestinian people should know by now that the militant groups care only about their own mission and survival. Their continued support of the groups undermines efforts by Mr. Abbas and his government to reach a diplomatic solution to 36 years of Israeli occupation.

The Bush administration has spelled out ways in which the Palestinian leadership can cripple the militants: funding, support, weapons and organization. The Palestinian security force in Gaza has the leadership and manpower to undertake any single item. But will it now with Israel's military on the move?

The grim reality here is that the situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories is only going to get worse before it gets better. That's the way the cycle works.