ISRAEL
Bittersweet Time for
Sharon
By Yossi Melman
Yossi Melman is an Israeli journalist and co-author of "The Spies:
Israel's Counter Espionage Wars."
April 13, 2003
TEL AVIV -- As the war in Iraq winds down, Israel and its leadership
are in the grip of a dilemma. On one hand, Israel is one of the main
beneficiaries of the end of Saddam Hussein's regime and his reputed
weapons of mass destruction. On the other, the Israeli government,
led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, fears the political ramifications
of Hussein's defeat. "I am afraid," said an Israeli Cabinet minister,
"that we will be asked to pay for American efforts to appease the
Arab world by forcing us to make concessions to the Palestinians."
Israeli support of the U.S.-led war comes almost naturally. Hussein
was one of Israel's worst enemies, ceaselessly calling for the liquidation
of what he termed "the Zionist entity." Before Hussein, the Iraqi
army participated in three wars -- in 1948, 1967 and 1973 -- against
Israel. In March 1990, Hussein promised to "let our fire eat half
of Israel." Less than a year later, during the 1991 Persian Gulf War,
Iraq launched 39 Scud missiles at Israel, one of them aimed at Israel's
nuclear reactor in the Negev desert. Hussein was also a rhetorical
and financial supporter of Palestinian terrorist groups and suicide
bombers.
One of the less-publicized aspects of the war in Iraq has been the
coalition's effective defense of Israel. Early on, American, British
and Australian units were dispatched from Jordan to search for Scud
missiles and weapons of mass destruction in western Iraq, an area
of 60,000 square meters. "It was like finding a needle in a haystack,"
said one American military official. Israeli military experts concede
that Israel's special forces couldn't have done a better job.
On the eve of the war in Iraq, the government had ordered Israelis
to seal off and equip rooms in their houses or apartments so they
could serve as safe places in case of an unconventional attack; they
were also told to carry gas masks at all times. Other than that, Israelis
were urged to lead "routine and normal" lives.
A skeptical nation dutifully went through the motions of covering
windows with plastic and tape. But as the first day of the war progressed,
an ever-increasing majority of people dumped their gas masks. Given
what Israeli intelligence knew, these Israelis were more rational
than their government. According to intelligence estimates, the Iraqi
threat to Israel was very low to nearly nonexistent because, unlike
in 1991, Iraq had virtually no capabilities to launch a missile attack.
Initially, the government had rightly felt only a need to urge public
calm. But after President Bush issued his 48-hour ultimatum to Hussein
and the minutes began ticking away, Sharon and his defense minister,
Shaul Mofaz, apparently panicked and called for the emergency measures.
Their decision was a huge waste of money. The public tab for opening
and testing the gas masks was nearly $300 million at a time of economic
recession, high unemployment and painful budgetary cuts. Even when
it became clear during the early phases of the war that the Iraqi
threat was a phantom, Israeli political and military leaders, in face-
saving defiance, refused to change the emergency orders.
But what is real and worrisome for the Israeli government is the plan
known as the "road map" toward peace in the Middle East, and its potential
links to the war in Iraq. The proposal, the fruits of a joint effort
by the Bush administration, the European Union, Russia and the United
Nations, lays out three stages to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The first is a cease-fire accompanied by the withdrawal of Israeli
forces from Palestinian towns and a halt to the expansion of Jewish
settlements in the occupied West Bank and Gaza. During the second
stage, a provisional Palestinian state would be established by the
end of this year. Then would come the difficult job of negotiating
the final status of Jerusalem, borders between the two states, Jewish
settlements and the return of Palestinian refugees. According to the
road map, both sides would have to reach a final agreement and sign
a peace treaty by 2005.
But there are disagreements not only between Israel and the Palestinians
on how to implement the plan but also between Israel and the U.S.
Before February's parliamentary elections, Sharon declared that he
accepts the two-state solution in principle. Last week, the Israeli
government gave the Bush administration its 15 reservations regarding
the road map. As for the Palestinians, they remain suspicious that
any peace process led by Washington, as the road map stipulates, will
favor Israel. They point out that the Bush administration promised
to act once reforms of the Palestinian Authority were in place and
Yasser Arafat's authority reduced. Yet, despite the choice of Mahmoud
Abbas, also known as Abu Maazen, as Palestinian prime minister, nothing
has happened.
Washington insists that it's not taking any detour from the road map.
Bush said last week after his meeting with British Prime Minister
Tony Blair in Belfast that he would release the proposal once Abbas
and his Cabinet are confirmed. Asked how serious he is about the peace
plan, Bush replied that Hussein also didn't think he was serious.
That answer must have grated on Sharon's ears not only because it
strongly hinted at the president's determination; it also made an
indirect comparison between Sharon and the former Iraqi leader.
Sharon knows he can't afford a confrontation with Israel's staunch
ally. So, he'll probably publicly profess his willingness to cooperate
while working behind the scenes to delay the plan's execution. Yet,
there are many Israelis, including some moderate Cabinet ministers,
who hope Bush will show his resolve. They believe that only U.S. pressure
-- even in the form of an imposed solution -- can break the 30-month
stalemate and bring about peace. If it happens, one can at least say
that as far as the Israeli-Arab conflict is concerned, something sweet
emerged from Iraqi bitterness.
Copyright 2003 Los Angeles Times |
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