Posted on Fri, May. 02, 2003

Abbas may be leading Palestinians toward another Oslo

Mahmoud Abbas' government was approved by the Palestinian Parliament on April 29. Palestinians finally have their own prime minister.

As a result, Palestinian society has been consumed with an intense debate. In the forefront of the debate was the personal legacy of Abbas himself, seen as the first real challenge to the authority of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

Arafat has rarely been challenged from within his own ranks. Israel schemed for years to undermine his influence among his people, but it failed. In fact, opinion polls have shown that Arafat's popularity surges during Israeli crackdowns on the Palestinians, especially if Arafat becomes a target.

Opposition groups such as Hamas as well as independent politicians have failed to present a challenge to Arafat. Some are not interested in presenting themselves as alternatives, and others, although respected, haven't been given the chance to prove their capability to lead.

Within Arafat's circle, Abbas' challenge is unprecedented. Abbas is different because his emergence is the outcome of two simultaneous movements -- one genuine, the other political. The genuine movement was the Palestinian people's desire for true reforms and democracy. The other came out of the so-called road map for peace initiative.

The Palestinians' call for reforms emerged shortly after the birth of the Palestinian Authority. Reforms have been strongly emphasized in recent months, following the Israeli reoccupation of the major urban centers in the West Bank in March 2002 and again last June.

While the Palestinian resistance put up a good fight, the PA scrambled with uncertainty and apparently without a Plan B. Accusations were exchanged among Palestinian officials, with some vowing to ''resist until the end'' and others willing to talk with Israel without conditions and to comprise -- even though virtually nothing on which to compromise was left.

A split took place in the PA, reflecting a reality that was always present but was never displayed so openly. That split subsequently was reflected in the Fatah movement -- the largest PLO faction and the leadership base for the PA.

• One Fatah faction is concerned more about national unity among Palestinian movements. It refuses to negotiate under occupation and settlement expansion, and it demands an end to the assassination policy of Israel. This faction believes in the continuing attacks targeting Israeli forces and armed settlers, yet it believes in Israel's right to exist and candidly preaches co-existence under a just and peaceful formula.

The leaders of this segment either have been assassinated or arrested, or are on Israel's wanted list. Marwan Barghouti, an elected Palestinian member of Parliament who is now in an Israeli prison, is the leader of this movement.

• Another Fatah faction, now emerging more forcefully, is represented by Abbas, who made a few friends upon his return to the occupied territories from exile following the signing of the Oslo Accord in 1993. He was one of the engineers of the accord, which Palestinians now regard as one of the worst decisions made by their leadership. His wealth, crowned by his $1.5 million villa in Gaza -- one of the poorest spots on earth -- evoked objections and bitter questions.

The intifada was a direct response to the unfairness of Oslo and led to the marginalization of Abbas during its first year. But in its second year, he again was on the scene, demanding an end to all violence and calling for disarming Palestinian groups and for unconditional return to the negotiation table. He indicated his willingness to compromise on fundamental issues that had ignited the Palestinian struggle, especially the discounting of Palestinian rights in Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians were increasingly demanding PA reforms that would create accountability on all levels and achieve an equitable political governance representing all Palestinians.

The loud voices demanding reforms were heard as Israel -- and consequently the United States -- called for Palestinian reforms as well. But Israel's desire for reforms was motivated by entirely different reasons, primarily aimed at fighting the intifada with Palestinian resources. Until the present intifada, Israel was considerably successful in this regard.

Through all this, the Palestinians' objectives remain as clear as always: an end to the Israeli occupation and the dismantling of settlements on their land. They are interested neither in ending their intifada nor subscribing to the political system of imposed democracies. Their indifference or rejection of Abbas represents their rejection of the political situation that his reemergence brought about, which, as far as Palestinians are concerned, is yet another Oslo.

Palestinians have paid a heavy price to rectify the futility of Oslo. Will they choose to go down that same road (map) again?

Ramzy Baroud is the editor-in-chief of The Palestine Chronicle.