In Post-Hussein Mideast, U.S. Can Do a Lot

James Klurfeld

April 17, 2003

No doubt about it, the United States is going to be playing a much bigger, much more confrontational role in the Mideast.

There is a chance now to change the pattern of authoritarian government and state support of terrorism that has existed for decades. The question is whether the Bush administration is really going to take advantage of it.

The first positive sign is that Washington is taking the gloves off with Syria. That doesn't necessarily mean a military invasion, but it does mean Washington will no longer tolerate Syria's support for terrorist groups or its decades-long occupation of Lebanon.

And Washington is in a position to make it clear to Saudi Arabia that it's time to stop buying off anti-American terrorists in exchange for leaving the royal family alone.

But it also means that the United States is now in a position to change the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. This is desirable not only to end the carnage there, but because it could significantly enhance the United States' credibility with the Arab world. Mideast experts say that aside from the crushing of Saddam Hussein's regime, there are independent developments in both the Palestinian and Israeli camps that make renewal of a peace process possible.

A chief factor is that the Palestinians are trying to limit Yasser Arafat's power. By appointing Arafat's longtime, but more moderate, deputy Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) as prime minister, the Palestinians are trying to isolate Arafat. At best, he should be a symbolic figure.

The transition is far from finished, however. Arafat and Abbas are in a struggle for power. The Palestinians who believe that the intifada has been a tragic mistake, moving them further and further from their goal of a state, must step up now. And Washington should help them.

Washington is also in a position to make it clear to the Israeli right wing that its settlement activity is not only counter-productive to the peace process, but also to U.S. interests in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon seems to acknowledge this new reality, saying he knows he is going to have to make some very painful decisions in the future if there is a genuine negotiating partner in the Palestinian camp.

Having invaded Iraq, it is not inconceivable that the United States will be willing to put its own troops in the West Bank - in essence, if not in name - making the West Bank an American protectorate. But that means Israel will have to abandon - or be forced to abandon - the settlements in the interior of the territories. Unrealistic? Don't forget this is the new, post-Saddam Hussein Mideast.

There is another prerequisite for peace: The surrounding Arab states must support it. The dirty little secret of the Mideast is that the Arab nations have never really been in favor of a Palestinian state. Most would rather have the issue of Palestinian grievance, of the alleged injustice perpetrated by Israel, as a way to divert attention away from their own failures, their despotism toward their people and their inability to deal with modernity. The Arab states, including the so-called moderates Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have cynically exploited the Israeli-Palestinian dispute for their own selfish purposes. Syria has done it blatantly.

For the Palestinians to make the compromises necessary for a peace agreement, they must have the overt support of their Arab neighbors. Lack of that support was a major reason for the failure of the 2000 Camp David summit. The moderates must be willing to clamp down on the radicals, not secretly support them, as has been the case.

Is President George W. Bush ready to make a commitment to a Mideast peace process as the presidential elections are just beginning? That's not clear. But this much is: The United States is in the Mideast in an unprecedented manner. All the old assumptions can be questioned. Actions that seemed impossible one month ago are now possible. Having made the sacrifice of American blood, the administration should now be willing to take advantage of what it has wrought.