Bush Must Smooth Out This Mideast Road Map

By Gershom Gorenberg

May 2, 2003

It was a crowded 24 hours, even by the news-sated standards of the Mideast. On Tuesday afternoon, the Palestinian parliament approved a new government committed to negotiating peace. By Wednesday afternoon, a terror bomb had exploded in Tel Aviv, killing three people; a general strike paralyzed Israel's economy; and a long-delayed international peace plan was pushed into the hands of Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

All four events - including the general strike - are tied together. Together, they constitute a challenge to President George W. Bush: It is time to pay up on the promissory note he wrote, committing himself to deep involvement in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy.

In a speech last June, Bush promised U.S. engagement in a peace effort that would lead to a two-state solution - Israel and Palestine living side by side - by 2005. A key condition, he said, was creating a new Palestinian leadership, committed to fighting terror and corruption. Bush's plan was vague. It avoided the most difficult issues of peacemaking and it unnecessarily put a peace agreement too far in the future. Nonetheless, it was a pledge to end the hands-off attitude he'd taken toward Mideast diplomacy since his first day in office.

In the months that followed, the so-called Quartet - the United States, the UN, the European Union and Russia - formulated a plan known as the "road map" for implementing Bush's promise. That's where diplomacy stopped.

For the president, it seemed, the promise of working on the Israeli-Palestinian problem was meant mainly to line up support for the war in Iraq. It was a way to shore up Prime Minister Tony Blair's political standing in Britain, a way to get key Arab leaders to cooperate with the war effort. Implementation could wait.

But the war is over, more or less. Not only that, the Palestinians have taken the first step to fulfill Bush's conditions. Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen), a moderate who has publicly called for the end of the violent conflict with Israel, has been appointed to the new post of prime minister. Approval of his government is a bid to sideline Yasser Arafat and begin reform. With no further excuse for delay, the road map has officially been presented to the Israeli and Palestinian governments.

Tuesday night's terror attack was a bid by Palestinian extremists to foil the new diplomacy. Their goal is not only to hurt Israel but also to discredit Abbas, in order to prevent any solution based on compromise. Of course, the recent explosion in Tel Aviv is also a reminder of how much Israel itself needs an end to this conflict. All of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's efforts to stop terror by military means alone have failed.

The general strike - mostly ignored by the international media - has the same message. Two and a half years of violence have left Israel's once-blossoming economy in ruins. To make ends meet, the government is slashing social programs and firing teachers, thereby sparking a fight with the country's unions. And as long as the war of attrition with the Palestinians continues, Israel's economic crisis and social divisions will deepen.

Congress' recent approval of extra financial aid to Israel can't solve that problem. The aid that Israel needs is diplomatic. A concerted American effort to revive the peace process is necessary not only to pay off the pledges that Bush made before the Iraq war. It is essential in order to make good on the president's domestic promises of support for Israel.

The road map calls for difficult steps by both Israel and the Palestinians. Progress won't happen unless outside players lean on the two sides. Abbas must deliver a crackdown on terror groups. Sharon must dismantle the West Bank settlements erected in the last two years - which means more than 50 so-called outposts, according to independent monitors - and stop expansion of other settlements completely. Making that happen demands daily micromanaging by American emissaries who enjoy full support from the president, especially in the next several months.

As Israeli strategic analyst Yossi Alpher points out, only the United States has leverage with Israel. "The question," Alpher stresses, "is whether Bush will pressure Sharon to carry out his road map obligations - or will obfuscate."

If Bush wants to evade involvement, he'll be able to find excuses. The next time there's a terror attack, he can claim Abbas hasn't fulfilled his obligations. He can assign blame, exit quickly and grant the terrorists a victory.

But the president should know: The evasion will be painfully obvious, especially to those of us who live in the midst of the conflict. If Bush intends to meet his promise to peace, if he intends to show his support for Israel, he must do it now.

Gershom Gorenberg, an associate editor of the Jerusalem Report, is the author of "The End of Days: Fundamentalism and the Struggle for the Temple Mount."