Prospects for Peace

Survey shows Palestinian extremists' demand for 'right of return' doesn't move most refugees.

July 16, 2003

A Palestinian "silent majority" exists, and it wants what most people anywhere in the world want: peace at the cost of reasonable compromises. But this majority's muted voice has been drowned out by the passionate cries of a violent minority that rejects any compromise, no matter the cost.

That is the Palestinians' tragedy. And nothing illustrates it more starkly than the mob attack in the West Bank this week on a renowned Palestinian political scientist as he was about to announce a surprising finding from a regional survey of Palestinian refugees - a survey that turned conventional wisdom on its head.

The polling found, contrary to militants' dogma, that only a small minority of Palestinian refugees wishes to exercise a "right of return" to Israel as part of a peace agreement.

This is a bombshell for extremists on both sides. Palestinian militants have made the right of return a sacrosanct part of their credo. Israelis fear that the right of return would lead to hordes of Palestinians swarming over, tipping the electoral balance toward Arabs. The report deflates overheated rhetoric on both sides.

Although 95 percent of the 4,500 refugee families surveyed in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan and Lebanon said they wanted Israel to recognize the principle of their right to return to Israel, most said they would prefer not to exercise that right. More than half - 54 percent - said they would accept compensation and homes in the West Bank and Gaza; 17 percent said they would prefer to stay in Jordan or Lebanon and 2 percent said they would like to emigrate to a third country. Only 10 percent said they would demand to live in Israel.

Even more telling than the findings was the militants' rage at the report. Its author, Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, was struck, shoved and pelted with eggs. His office was ransacked and staffers beaten up. Shikaki had done the unthinkable: He actually asked Palestinians what they wanted, and militants didn't like the answers one bit.

It's time for the Palestinian silent majority to be heard - and for Israelis to know that Palestinian moderates wish for the same thing they want - a pragmatic peace - even if that notion is threatening to extremists on both sides.