Removing Arafat Could Start an All-Out War

By Fawaz A. Gerges

September 23, 2003

Although last week the United States vetoed a Security Council resolution demanding that Israel back off its threat to "remove" Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, U.S. diplomats reiterated Washington's opposition to either exiling or eliminating him.

American officials acknowledge that deporting or killing Arafat will likely have serious repercussions on the prospects of Palestinian-Israeli peace-making and regional stability. Secretary of State Colin Powell convincingly said, "There would be rage throughout the Arab world, the Muslim world, and in many other parts of the world."

Far from achieving security for its citizens, the decision by Israel's security cabinet to deport Arafat, at a time of its choosing, threatens to plunge Palestinians and Israelis into an all-out war resulting in more bloodshed and suffering. Chaos, not order, will likely prevail. If and when Israel moves against Arafat, it will deepen the sense of victimization and powerlessness among Palestinians and radicalize and militarize their society further.

Despite his dismal record, Arafat "embodies Palestinian identity and aspirations." Neutralizing him will thus play into the hands of Hamas and Jihad, and supply them with more recruits to launch more attacks against Israelis.

Israel accuses Arafat of encouraging violence against its citizens and refusing to order Palestinian security forces to prevent attacks. It is true Arafat flirted with limited violence and undermined the efforts of his former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to unify all Palestinian security forces under a transparent command.

But it is misleading to hold Arafat accountable for Hamas and Jihad's suicide bombings. Hamas and Jihad act independently from and contrary to the interests of the Palestinian Authority and their actions have brought about its ruin. Sources close to Arafat say he has not moved against the militants not for fear of internal civil war but because he does not believe that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is serious about an equitable peace.

It is equally misleading to reduce the current stalemate in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the role played by Arafat.

There are structural constraints, such as the military occupation and the presence of more than 200,000 Jewish settlers on the West Bank and Gaza, which must be tackled head-on to give Palestinians hope. Even if Arafat disappeared from the scene today, no Palestinian leader would be able to sign a peace treaty with Israel without the dismantling of the settlements and the ending of the military occupation. In this sense, the hard-liners in the Likud Cabinet represent at least as much an "obstacle to peace" as Arafat.

In his resignation speech to a private session of parliament, Abbas was more critical of the Americans and Israelis than of Arafat for not doing enough to help him convince his people there is a ray of hope at the end of the tunnel.

"The fundamental problem," said Abbas, "is Israel's unwillingness to implement its road map commitments and to undertake any constructive measures."

Arafat could not have undermined Abbas and publicly ridiculed him by labeling him "the Karzai of Palestine" - a collaborator - if he had been able to show real progress in the peace process.

Neither Abbas nor any potential successor will likely succeed unless he improves the lives of Palestinians. Thus, the most effective means to marginalize Arafat and Hamas and Jihad is empowerment of Palestinians, not further military escalation. In fact, Israel's decision has already produced the opposite results from the intended consequences. Thousands of Palestinians have visited Arafat's shattered compound to express solidarity with their besieged leader. He has regained lost popularity and reemerged as the most influential Palestinian actor. Even Syrian rulers, his arch enemies, felt obliged to have their foreign minister call him and convey their "unconditional" support.

One critical lesson learned since the outbreak of the armed Palestinian intifada three years ago is that there is no military solution to this tragic conflict. Suicide bombings will not drive Israelis away.

Similarly, no further repressive measures used by the Likud government will succeed in forcing the Palestinians to accept its dictate. There is a more humane and rational alternative to this futile cycle of escalation and counter-escalation - a peace settlement that recognizes the legitimate interests of both sides by granting security for Israel and self-determination for Palestinians."

'Chaos, not order, will likely prevail.'

Fawaz A. Gerges, a professor of Middle East and international affairs at Sarah Lawrence College, is author of the forthcoming "The Islamists and the West: Ideology vs Pragmatism."