Each side has
been careful not to commit to a course of action that it cannot
quickly back out of. Each has chosen to avoid a showdown with its
extremists by not quite making the concessions most sought by the
other side, despite the letter and spirit of the plan. The Palestinian
Authority has not, as Israelis most desire, begun to break apart
violent groups like Hamas and collect their illegal weapons; Israel
has not, as the Palestinians most desire, taken forceful action
to restrain settlements in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
A senior Israeli
official argued recently that expectations for the peace plan, which
calls for a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace and a Palestinian state
in just three years, had been unrealistically high. He said that
the road map was following the familiar routine of any such process,
which he likened to "the standard path of an illness."
"In the beginning
it's all full of hot air," he said. "The air is stuffed with white
doves." But, he added, "When it comes to action, everyone starts
dragging his feet, because of domestic political problems."
As violence
surged last week, Israeli and Palestinian officials scrambled to
demonstrate forward motion to calm things down. Under American pressure,
Palestinian officials agreed to a two-week-old Israeli offer to
accept security control for two more West Bank towns: Qalqiliya
and Jericho.
They had previously
rejected that offer as meaningless. The Israelis have no security
presence in Jericho, the most tranquil West Bank city. Qalqiliya
is surrounded by an Israeli barricade, its one access route controlled
by an Israeli Army checkpoint.
To sweeten
the deal, the Israelis offered reversible or largely symbolic concessions:
to consider a further hand-over of two more West Bank cities and,
according to Palestinian officials, to permit Yasir Arafat, the
Palestinian leader, to go to Gaza to mourn a sister who died last
week.
Just to have
the two sides talking again is no small accomplishment. But measured
against the ambitious milestones set by the peace plan, the progress
has been mincing.
This explains
the notable lack of panic by those on each side with the most to
lose under the peace plan. Far-right Israeli parties opposed to
a Palestinian state have not bolted the governing coalition of Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon; Hamas and Islamic Jihad have not officially
abandoned a unilateral halt to hostilities sought by Mahmoud Abbas,
the Palestinian prime minister.
"It's much
slower than I would expect," Ghassan W. Shakah, the mayor of the
West Bank city of Nablus and a veteran of the Oslo peace process,
said of the new peace plan. "Killing hope is the most serious problem
we are facing."
As a yardstick
for how far the parties have gone, consider what Israel offered
the Palestinians a year ago: the "Gaza-Bethlehem first" plan. Israel
proposed to withdraw its forces from parts of Gaza and most of Bethlehem;
Palestinian security forces would take over to show they were willing
and able to impose order; then Israel would make further withdrawals.
But the adversaries
remained deadlocked. So the United States, the United Nations, the
European Union and Russia joined forces to formulate a far more
sweeping, detailed plan, the road map. It demanded Palestinian civic
reforms, a freeze on Israeli settlements, Palestinian action against
terrorism and an Israeli withdrawal from all positions it seized
in the last three years — all that in a first, five-month phase.
More than two
months have passed since President Bush presented the plan at a
summit in Aqaba, Jordan. And on the ground, Israeli forces have
withdrawn from parts of Gaza and most of Bethlehem. For now, the
road map looks a lot like "Gaza-Bethlehem first."
Reversible
concessions have the advantage of being recyclable. In withdrawing
from Bethlehem, Israel gave 4,000 Palestinians there permits to
cross the Israeli checkpoints that ring that town to reach jobs
elsewhere. Then, after a shooting attack wounded four Israelis near
Bethlehem on Aug. 3, Israeli rescinded the permits. On Friday, to
encourage the peace process, it announced it was providing 4,000
Palestinians with new permits.
It has taken
tremendous American pushing to get the process this far.
It was only
in anticipation of a visit from Condoleezza Rice, the national security
adviser, that the main Palestinian factions agreed at the end of
June to a three-month suspension of attacks, and Israel began its
withdrawal from Gaza and then Bethlehem.
Then, early
in July, the Israeli government voted to release some Palestinian
prisoners — a step not specified in the peace plan — in a declared
effort to lift Mr. Abbas's popularity. As an Israeli official noted,
releasing prisoners, unlike yielding territory, is easily reversible;
they can always be arrested again. Israel did not actually free
the prisoners for a month, until Prime Minister Ariel Sharon went
to Washington to meet with President Bush.
Shlomo Avineri,
a political scientist at Hebrew University, said it was not a positive
sign that "such a marginal issue" consumed so much high-level attention.
"You need so much political clout on the American side to be squandered,
so to speak, on secondary issues, that when you come to the real
tough issues, how much political clout will be left — particularly
as we get into an election year?" he asked.
On paper, the
plan calls for bolder action.
In the first
phase, Israel is supposed to freeze "all settlement activity" and
"immediately" dismantle settlement outposts built since March 2001.
According to the Israeli group Peace Now, whose studies American
officials use to monitor settlements, there are about 60 such outposts,
clusters of trailers and tents set up on hilltops to strengthen
settlers' grip on the land. Dror Etkes of Peace Now said that while
Israel had taken down some, settlers had set up an identical number
of new ones.
On the Palestinian
side, one stipulated concession was actually made before Aqaba:
Mr. Arafat reluctantly appointed Mr. Abbas. Yet Mr. Abbas is still
struggling with Mr. Arafat over the extent of his powers.
What Israel
says it most wants is for the Palestinians to act against terrorists.
The senior
Israeli official argued that the demands on both sides were not
symmetrical, because the stakes of the mandated Palestinian concessions
were higher. The Israeli concessions would not save lives, he said.
By contrast, he said, Palestinian action against terrorism would
save lives.
"O.K., we're
stuck, in a way, in a vicious circle," the Israeli official said,
expressing what he described as the Israeli message to the Palestinians.
"You have your political constraints, we have our political constraints.
What we are asking for from you is life-saving. What you are asking
for from us is purely political."
But Mr. Abbas
is much weaker politically than Mr. Sharon, and Palestinian officials
say that without further Israeli concessions he will never be strong
enough to act against Hamas or Islamic Jihad. The peace plan actually
mandates that in the first phase the Palestinian Authority "begins"
acting against terrorist groups, not that it finishes the work.
It may fall to Mr. Bush to decide what constitutes a meaningful
beginning.