year and a half after President Bush demanded that the Palestinians remove Yasir Arafat from power, a new Palestinian government has now been installed and its unchallenged leader is . . . Yasir Arafat. Despite weeks of trying, the new prime minister, Ahmed Qurei, was unable to wrest control of the key security services from Mr. Arafat. This is a tragic failure. As long as Mr. Arafat remains at the top of the Palestinian Authority, it will view violence as a legitimate political tool.

The last Palestinian prime minister who tried to outmaneuver Mr. Arafat was Mahmoud Abbas, who resigned in frustration two months ago, abandoned not only by his fellow Palestinians but also by Israel and America. His requests for support from the Israeli government — for the release of prisoners, the dismantling of illegal settlement outposts and the removal of military checkpoints — were largely ignored. Israel argued that until the Palestinians showed some real sign of cracking down on their terrorist networks, it would do little.

Many Israelis now view that position as having been shortsighted. Four former heads of the Shin Ben security service said in an interview published Friday that current Israeli policies were leading to catastrophe. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government says it will try harder with Mr. Qurei.

Unfortunately, this movie already feels like a remake. Only a few months ago, Israelis and Palestinians enjoyed a six-week cease-fire, with each side saying it was up to the other to make the first real move to get the American-sponsored peace plan, known as the road map, going. Neither side blinked, and renewed violence was the result. It seems nearly certain that this pattern will be repeated. Talks will go nowhere, a terrorist attack will occur, Israel will retaliate, and the truce will end — unless the Bush administration seizes the moment.

The road map toward two states makes demands of both sides. Israel is to remove illegal settlement outposts and freeze settlements. The Palestinians must collect unauthorized weapons and start to dismantle the terror networks. Only Washington is capable of getting the sides to move.

Yet the administration seems incapable of focusing on any foreign endeavor beyond Iraq, especially with a presidential election in less than a year. Mr. Bush seems to think that he can back away from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict until after the election, keeping it on a kind of low boil. This is an illusion. With Jews and Arabs approaching demographic parity in the combined area of Israel and the occupied territories, and Jewish settlements continuing to thicken in the West Bank, the clock is ticking on a two-state solution. This is not a problem that can benefit from benign neglect.