Posted on Fri, May. 02, 2003
Map
quest
In Middle East, each side must risk
internal stress
he "road map" for Middle East peace released this week was a joint venture of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia. Let's cheer first that the Bush White House took part in a multilateral effort.
But the road map is not primarily about demonstrating that this administration can play nicely with others.
It's aimed at leading Palestinians and Israelis to a peaceful resolution of their decades-long conflict.
Toward that end, the plan at least refocuses attention on the prerequisites of any lasting peace: establishing a viable Palestinian state, and ensuring that such a state does not threaten Israel's security or survival.
There's nothing particularly novel in the road map. The steps it says both sides must take are obvious ones. They've been urged in numerous peace plans, but they have ended up buried in the desert dust.
Briefly focusing attention might be all this latest plan does, however - and what a shame that would be.
Here is what it would take for this road map actually to lead somewhere.
New Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas would have to win, in essence, a Palestinian civil war, one that sharply reduces the power and reach of terror-spawning groups such as Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade.
Abbas is thought to be the Palestinian leader most capable of combating these groups. But if Palestinian President Yasir Arafat continues to undermine Abbas, an enormously tough task will be made impossible.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would have to reverse some of his own views while risking the collapse of his right-wing governing coalition. Following the road map will require him to distance himself from the hard-line right in Israel, which has supported him. No peace plan will work unless settlement building is frozen and illegal settlement outposts are disbanded.
Sharon would have to accept this road map largely as-is. He cannot demand that all Palestinian terrorism must cease before Israel does anything, which goes against the road map's call for parallel steps.
Sharon has so far indicated he would give up less than half of the West Bank. How much of the Gaza Strip he would relinquish is unclear. A Palestinian state is a sham if its borders are noncontiguous and divided by Israeli settlements and access roads.
Finally, the Bush administration would have to pursue this diplomacy with an unaccustomed zeal.
President Bush has a genuine desire to bring about Middle East peace. But behind him circle the administration hawks. With the war in Iraq so speedily won, those hawks seem to be wielding great influence. Some are openly impatient with the "road map." They wouldn't weep if it proved unproductive. They could claim to have tried the diplomatic road - then continue on a military quest to remake the entire Middle East.
What a dangerous road that could be.