Sat, Jul. 05, 2003

In the best case, Palestinians and Israelis now have three months to make as much progress as possible under the latest peace plan, enough progress to make going backward more unpalatable than going forward.

In the three months of cease-fire now agreed upon, the United States must continue to exert enormous pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to follow the steps prescribed in the U.S.-backed plan, known as the "road map."

The plan envisions an independent Palestinian state neighboring a secure Israel by 2005. To reach that faraway goal, both sides must take parallel confidence-building steps. After 33 months of bloodshed and shattered trust during this last Palestinian uprising, the road map simply has no chance of succeeding without a persistent U.S. commitment.

President Bush deserves credit for involving himself and key foreign policy officials in pushing Sharon to return security of the West Bank city of Bethlehem to the Palestinian Authority, withdraw troops from parts of the northern Gaza Strip, cooperate in security matters with the Palestinian Authority, and dismantle some checkpoints.

U.S. pressure also played a role in the cease-fire agreed to by radical militant Palestinian groups Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade. Those groups and Palestinian Authority President Yasir Arafat felt the heat from Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries growing weary of the endless conflict. They also felt some slacking of support for their terrorism from Iran and Syria, two nations being targeted for harsh admonitions from the United States.

Both Palestinians and Israelis are wary from too many examples of peace plans heralded, then buried beneath a new avalanche of violence. After so much blood and so much anger, each side is deeply suspicious of the other's real intentions.

On the Palestinian side, proving sincerity in following the road map means going well beyond a cease-fire. Groups that proudly claim the extinction of Israel as a goal must be disarmed and marginalized. Abbas seems to know that. But he must maneuver around Arafat, who would gladly undercut Abbas and prospects for a Palestinian homeland if he could retain power and prestige.

The United States and its Arab allies must buttress Abbas and put enormous pressure on nations that would like to help Arafat make mischief.

For Israel, sincerity means genuinely dismantling settlement outposts built since March 2001, as the first phase of the road map requires.

The Israeli government has claimed it is complying. Yet as it tears down some outposts, the government is looking the other way when settlers promptly rebuild or erect a new outpost. A recent editorial in the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz put it this way: "The dismantling of outposts episode is turning into a parody. For every 'unauthorized outpost' ostensibly dismantled by the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces], two others are constructed by settlers.... The game is one of appearances in an attempt to make a favorable impression on public opinion."

Such game-playing only fuels Palestinians' belief that Israel never will allow a viable state in the terrorities it now occupies. If left standing, the settlement outposts and many settlements themselves would make Swiss cheese of any potential Palestine.

The clever wager behind the road map is that if each side takes small, concurrent steps, trust begins to be restored. With each step, it becomes more difficult politically to turn back. With each step, it becomes a little harder for extremists on each side to make peace look impossible. With each step, Abbas and Sharon develop better muscles for peace-making. With each step, the pressure is increased for the other side to reciprocate.

That is why the United States must be there, applying its own pressure, and offering guidance and support each step along this difficult but necessary road.