Road to optimism
A truce and a withdrawal bolster Mideast hopes

Tuesday, July 01, 2003

Under the watchful eye of President Bush's personal envoy, the Israelis and Palestinians are now positioned to make prog-ress in implementation of the road map to a two-state settlement and sustainable peace in the Middle East.

But fragility and the vulnerability of all concerned, Israelis and Palestinians on the ground and President Bush's administration as the chaperone of this lethal couple, remain evident. This will not be a straightforward advance to success. Nor, however, should anyone think that this problem is impossible.

On the Palestinian side, the three main groups responsible for the suicide attacks and other violence have promised to respect a 90-day moratorium on attacks on Israelis. The Israeli side has agreed to withdraw its forces from northern Gaza and turn responsibility for security there over to Palestinian forces. The Israelis have begun their withdrawal.

The question now on the Palestinian side is the ability of its leadership to exercise sufficient control over its militants and fighters to see that the pledge of 90 days of peace is respected.

On Israel's side, the question is whether its forces will respect their end of the agreement if, for example, a choice opportunity to kill a Hamas militant leader presents itself or some Palestinian -- perhaps even rogue, outside the control of the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades -- carries out some ghastly attack against Israelis. At that point, nearby Israel Defense Forces tanks could easily roll right back into northern Gaza.

The basic question again becomes, what real good will exists at the top on the two sides? And how solid is the control that the leadership of both sides exerts over its people?

On the Palestinian side, one knows the face of the danger to the tentative accord; it is in the fresh-faced, fixed stare of the fanatic, ready to blow himself or herself to pieces for the Palestinian cause. On the Israeli side, it is a settler who firmly believes that all of the area where Israel can exert military control, including Gaza and the West Bank, somehow belongs to Israel, in spite of the need for peace and sharing of the land to achieve long-term peace and security in the area.

As far as the United States is concerned, it is the task of Mr. Bush to look these risks in the eye and persist in making the road map work. If either or both the Palestinians and the Israelis are not acting in good faith, the United States is nonetheless firmly signed on through the American president's direct role in the proceedings, ripe to don a dunce cap in the event of failure.

Given the pre-eminent role of the United States in the world and particularly in the Middle East, in spite of the risks this issue is a cup that cannot pass from us.

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