Bush exposes settlements as threat to Mideast peace

Little more than a year ago, Migron consisted of one lonely camper perched on a hill in the Israeli-held West Bank. Today, with help from the Israeli government, Migron looks like a community there to stay. Its 35-plus families live in comfortable trailers and have access to a kindergarten, a health clinic and paved roads. Permanent homes and more settlers are on the way.

Migron and 200 other Jewish settlements are at the heart of the Middle East conflict. Ranging from large towns with universities to a few mobile trailers, the settlements have expanded Israel's occupation of land it seized during the 1967 war with Arab neighbors — territory Palestinians now want for a homeland. For all of the recent focus on Palestinian terror attacks blocking President Bush's road map, the Israeli settlements also are a huge obstacle along the path to peace.

Bush emphasized that point last week, when the administration warned that the United States would reduce $9 billion in loan guarantees to Israel for every dollar it spends on settlements. In addition, he is stepping up pressure to halt Israel's construction of a 400-mile security fence around several settlements for fear it will be used as a permanent extension of Israel's eastern border in land that rightfully constitutes a Palestinian state.

Bush's actions send an important message to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. They put him on notice that the U.S. has grown impatient with his insincere pledges to remove or freeze dozens of settlements. Instead, in a defiant game of "whack-a-mole," Sharon's government encourages new outposts even as it dismantles existing ones. Settlements were expanded even during the six-week ceasefire by Palestinian terrorists this summer.

How Sharon responds to the U.S. nudges will provide a barometer of his commitment to peace. As long as the settlement problem was left to Palestinian leaders to raise, the issue was too easily obscured by horrific suicide bombings that targeted Israeli civilians. Bush's pointed moves more correctly link Sharon's standing on settlements to his ability to behave as a trustworthy U.S. partner.

Already, Bush's actions have had an impact. The Israeli government announced Friday that it was delaying a decision on extending the fence until it discusses the issue with U.S. officials in Washington this week.

The question now is whether Sharon will seize that momentum to take on religious hardliners who say the settlements are on land that Jews have claimed as their own since biblical days. Their support is critical to his ruling coalition's survival.

Yet Sharon also faces risks if he backs down on his pledge to give up some settlements as part of the road map to peace:

•Financial aid. Bush's threat to hold up some of the loan guarantees signals to Sharon that supporting settlements could come at great cost The Israeli government already is feeling a financial squeeze, and the loss of U.S. aid would increase the burden of subsidizing settlements through cheap housing, free kindergartens and tax breaks.

•Public opinion. In raising the issue, Bush reminds Sharon that a majority of Israelis favor compromise. A poll in June by a Tel Aviv University think tank showed 59% of Israelis would abandon all but the largest settlements, and 56% favored withdrawal from all settlements as part of a peace accord. Continued intransigence by Sharon could jeopardize his political support.

Sharon typically blames Palestinian leaders' failure to halt suicide bombings for throwing the U.S.-backed road map off course. Yet to get peace back on track, both sides have to make good on promises to end violent or provocative actions. For Sharon, that means taking on settlers like those in Migron before they dig in deeper