Another Place for Bush to Be Decisive

PARIS -- The argument always comes up eventually when you're traveling in the Middle East: The United States cannot play the role of peacemaker, your Arab host will insist, because the pro-Israel lobby in Washington is too strong.

This is a conversation I have grown to hate -- partly for its not-so-veiled anti-Semitism, partly because it ignores the reality that most Israelis want peace, whatever right-wing lobbyists may say, and partly because of its cynical, one-dimensional view of U.S. politics.

America is a country of surprises, I like to remind my Arab hosts. In U.S. foreign policy, values and strategic vision count for more than narrow political interests. The anti-communist Richard Nixon went to Mao's China; the liberal Jimmy Carter persuaded conservative Menachem Begin to make peace with Egypt. And perhaps now George W. Bush can help create a Palestinian state that lives in peace with its neighbor.

That's my hope as the "road map" to Middle East peace is finally published. But when I read the skeptical comments in yesterday's papers declaring the road map a political nonstarter, I am reminded of the cynicism of the Arab world.

"I don't think he [Bush] gets anything politically if he has a peace deal," one pro-Israel GOP lobbyist told The Post.

The chorus of know-it-all naysayers is nearly deafening, and maybe it's right. Perhaps only a fool would imagine that Bush would follow his triumph in Iraq by waging peace. Perhaps this president does listen more to Karl Rove's political calculus than to his own conscience.

But I don't want to believe that. And I certainly don't want to let the Israel-haters in the Arab world say: "See, we told you so." So I'm going to take Bush at his word and believe that the road map is for real.

What will it take to move two stubborn adversaries, Israel and the Palestinians, along the road toward peace by 2005? The obvious first answer is that it will take a personal commitment from Bush. But here are some other suggestions:

• Peace is too lofty a notion. It will take a generation for these two sides to forgive each other and embrace. Needed now are a truce and a separation, signified by the borders of a Palestinian state. What's good about the road map is that it's short on rhetoric and long on practical specifics. The two most important words in the document are "reciprocal steps," but each side is likely to insist that the other go first.

• To achieve a truce, both sides must give up the idea they can "win" the conflict. Once upon a time, it was the Israelis who seemed to believe they could win -- keep the land and impose peace, too. But then came the disastrous 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the two Palestinian intifadas and the nightmare of the suicide bombers. Frustrated Israelis began to play for a tie.

At that point, in the sickening balance wheel of Middle East politics, the Palestinians began to imagine they could "win" -- to believe that their human bombs could break the resolve of the Jewish state. That's what made the iron fist of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon inevitable. He told Palestinians, in the savage language of military force, that Israel would never give up. For the road map to succeed, the Palestinians must now decide to play for a tie, too.

• In the end, a peace agreement will reflect American political will. The road map may have European and international support, but it's still an American game. Here's where the neo-imperialists at the Pentagon get their payoff, if they're wise enough to seize it.

American power is unchallenged. In three weeks, the U.S. military destroyed the most significant threat on Israel's eastern front. In the process, it also destroyed the rationale used by successive Israeli governments for settlements on the West Bank. As Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told me four months ago, Washington should demand a freeze on Israeli settlements once the Iraq war ends.

The Palestinian left and the Israeli right will resist this push for peace. That's not a risk, it's a certainty: Palestinian suicide bombers and Israeli assassination squads have both been active since the road map was announced. How Bush deals with this resistance will test his presidency once again.

The American people have come to admire a president who backs up deeply held values with decisive action. If Bush can show that he's serious about the road map -- and that he will not tolerate obstruction -- a skeptical world will applaud his leadership.