Hard man to topple

Wednesday, March 31st, 2004

April could start as a cruel month for Ariel Sharon. The Passover Seder has become a lonely ritual for him since the death of his beloved wife, Lilly. It is also a culinary trauma. Being prime minister of Israel means making a public show of eating gefilte fish and matzo balls each year.

Sharon, a famous foodie, is more a shrimp-and-lobster bisque kind of guy.

Pretending to relish an unrelishable holiday menu is just one of the onerous duties of high office in the Jewish State. Another is not getting caught stealing money. Some Israelis think that Sharon has flunked that one. Among them is state prosecutor Edna Arbel, who has recommended putting Sharon on trial for bribe-taking.

Sometime around the end of April, Arbel's recently appointed new boss, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz, will decide if Sharon should be indicted.

If that happens, Sharon almost certainly will be forced to leave office.

But it's not an open-and-shut case - Sharon's not an easy man to catch. Years ago, for example, he somehow managed, on a government salary, to acquire a very expensive ranch. Like Hillary Clinton's big score in the futures market, this economic miracle recalls the rabbi's ruling on a three-day-old fish: It may be kosher, but it stinks.

There is very little doubt that Sharon peddled influence to a rich supporter in a deal that made Sharon's son a lot of money. But very little doubt isn't absolute certainty. And that's what Sharon is counting on.

In Israel, the attorney general is a civil servant, not a politician. Snuffing out a prime ministerial career over unproven charges takes a lot of brass. Especially when the snuffee is Sharon. At 76, he is a warrior with a hideful of shrapnel and poison-tipped political arrowheads. If he goes down, he will go down fighting.

Sharon's greatest weapon is his stature. For better or worse, he's a national icon. Most Israelis don't want him to come crashing down in a way that would shake the national equilibrium right now.

That would be true even if there were an attractive alternative to Sharon, which there is not. The opposition Labor Party, led by the eternally hapless Shimon Peres and discredited by an unshakable inability to face reality on the Palestinian front, is not even an option. Sharon's replacement, if there is one, will be a fellow Likudnik.

The leading candidate, Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, already has served one ineffectual and scandalous stint as prime minister, mercifully ended by a landslide electoral defeat in 1999. The other Likud benchwarmers are worse. Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom is a lifetime .235 hitter. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz is an untried rookie. And Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is a one-man Mudville Nine.

Sharon also has the backing of President Bush. The President is wildly popular in Israel. Sharon has a lot of influence in America. The two are scheduled to meet in Washington in mid-April. Officially, they are supposed to discuss Sharon's plan for pulling out of Gaza. In reality, they intend to engage in an act of mutual endorsement.

That meeting will certainly have an impact on the decision of the Israeli attorney general - perhaps even a decisive impact.

The friendship of the President of the United States is the greatest gift an Israeli political leader can bring back with him from Washington.

And, as Al Smith once remarked, nobody - certainly no newly appointed civil servant - wants to shoot Santa Claus. Not even in the month of April.