Mr. Sharon's Coup

Friday, April 16, 2004

ARIEL SHARON left Washington yesterday with a landmark achievement in hand: For the first time, an American president has put the United States on record as supporting Israel's eventual annexation of parts of the West Bank and as rejecting the return to its territory of Palestinian refugees. Whatever happens in the coming months -- Mr. Sharon's political future is uncertain, as is President Bush's -- those written commitments will reshape the diplomacy surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the role of the United States in any future peace settlement.

What did Mr. Bush receive in exchange for these historic pledges and for his willingness to absorb the inevitable backlash from an Arab Middle East already roiled by the U.S. mission in Iraq? Mr. Sharon made a series of promises, some of which he has made before and not fulfilled, and others that he may not be able to implement. If the Israeli leader lives up to his promises, including the withdrawal of settlements from the Gaza Strip, administration officials believe the United States will be able to capitalize on them to move toward the goal of a peace settlement between side-by-side Israeli and Palestinian states. They may be right -- but making this bold gamble pay off will require a more determined U.S. diplomacy than the Bush administration has displayed thus far.

The Gaza withdrawal must still be approved by a referendum in the ruling Likud Party and a vote by parliament; if it goes forward, it will not begin until next year nor be completed until the summer of 2005. Mr. Sharon, 76, meanwhile faces the threat of a possible indictment on criminal charges that could force him from office as soon as next month; if he goes, his successor may not support the planned withdrawal. The administration cannot control these events and the consequent risk of receiving no return on its historic concessions. But it should insist that Mr. Sharon quickly fulfill his renewed promises to dismantle settlement "outposts" and checkpoints in the West Bank, release frozen Palestinian funds and place a limit on future construction in settlements. Mr. Bush has tolerated the Israeli leader's failure to carry out these measures for most of the past year.

The administration must also aggressively pursue Mr. Bush's promise "to join with others in the international community" to rebuild Palestinian institutions and leadership so as to make possible the early creation of a state. That will not be easy, as Mr. Bush's announcement yesterday could open a rift between the United States and the other members of the "quartet" -- the European Union, the United Nations and Russia -- that previously was united behind the U.S. "road map" for a negotiated peace settlement. It may cause the Palestinian leadership to renounce the peace process indefinitely or collapse altogether. Should negotiations resume, the fact that the United States adopted a position on the return of refugees that is less flexible even than that offered by Israeli officials in some previous talks will make it all the more difficult for the United States to play a mediating role. To move forward, the administration will have to reassure its partners and the Palestinians that it still supports a multi-sided peace process and not simply unilateral acts by Israel.

Mr. Bush says that is his purpose, but in speaking to domestic audiences Mr. Sharon emphasizes different goals. He has described his withdrawal plan as an alternative to other envisioned agreements that would not allow Israel to maintain control over the large parts of the West Bank and Jerusalem that it intends to wall off with its security barrier. He has said he expects the status quo he is creating to endure "for many years," with no Palestinian state created in the meantime. For Mr. Bush to achieve his own vision -- and avoid another turn for the worse for U.S. interests in the Middle East -- the president ultimately will have to recognize his differences with Mr. Sharon and act to ensure that U.S. aims prevail.