Fri, May. 07, 2004
FOCUS
ON ISRAEL
Why did Sharon set this Gaza trap for himself?
JERUSALEM -- Imagine President Bush going to the United Nations and announcing that now that the mission has been accomplished, he is going to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq. He would surely get a standing ovation. People from all over the world, watching on television, would admire his leadership. Yet on the way out, while shaking hands and waving to the cheering crowd, he would turn to his aides and mumble, ``Now let's go and ask the American people.''
That might look a bit strange. After all, what's the point of making such a public commitment if he is not sure whether he has the people behind him? Nevertheless, let us assume that, in such a crucial decision, it is good policy to have a consensus and that the way to do it is, obviously, by bringing it to Congress for approval or, alternatively, to the American people through a national referendum.
But let us carry on with our theoretical scenario and assume that Bush, after making such a promise, would ask only Republicans for their opinion -- and not even all Americans who voted for him but only the 50 million or so who are registered with the Republican Party. Assuming that only 40 percent of those registered Republicans care enough to vote, the result would be that 20 million out of 200 million eligible voters would be deciding for the whole American people whether or not to pull out of Iraq. And if this is not enough, then let us imagine that 12 million out of those 20 million would vote against the referendum. In other words, a small fraction of the American people would exercise a veto power over the president, leaving him with egg on his face.
Ridiculous? Impossible? Of course! Yet, that is exactly what happened earlier this week with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. First, he went to Washington and, with Bush's blessing, announced his courageous plan to pull out of Gaza. Then he went back home and asked only registered Likud Party members what they thought, only to get a humiliating rejection.
Why did Sharon, the old political fox, set this trap for himself and then step into it in such a stupid way? I don't have a clue. Some cynics in Israel say that he did it on purpose, to show everyone what kind of an opposition he was facing and how difficult his task was. But I don't believe that. You don't go to the White House and have the U.S. president make an unprecedented declaration, namely that the Palestinians should forget about returning to their old homes, and then embarrass him like that.
One way or another, thanks to this folly, 4 percent of the Israeli population was enough to put Sharon's plan on the back-burner. Now he is trying to modify it, so these refuseniks will accept it. Once again, Sharon is mistaken. He should go to the Israeli people, who in poll after poll have been expressing their support for a pull-out from Gaza, and let them decide. As a matter of fact, a poll taken immediately after that ill-fated ''exercise'' in democracy showed that even among Likud voters in general (not registered Likudniks only), there was a majority favoring Sharon's plan.
Can Sharon just ignore the vote in his party? He can, and he should. The process was so flawed that an overwhelming majority of Israelis would back him wholeheartedly if he chose to raise the issue again, this time, as it should have been done in the first place: either taking it to the people directly, through a referendum, or, preferably, to the Knesset, which embodies the will of the people.
Democracy is fragile enough, even without such awkward experiments.
Uri Dromi is director of international outreach at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem.