Political Lines Get Scrambled in Israel

By Shlomo Avineri
July 25, 2004

JERUSALEM — Israeli politics is at a crossroad.

In the last year, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has moved consistently toward the center. Several times, the Israeli politician most identified with the settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip has said that a Palestinian state will eventually be established, that the occupation has to end and that some settlements will accordingly be dismantled.

All this was just so many words until February, when Sharon announced a plan of unilateral disengagement from Gaza and the dismantlement of all Jewish settlements there and four isolated settlements in the West Bank by the end of 2005. The proposal cost the prime minister his parliamentary majority and a coalition partner in the Cabinet.

Sharon's minority government will probably not fall in the next few months. But leading the country through historical decisions about its borders and the evacuation of more than 7,000 Jewish settlers from Gaza without firm parliamentary support will not be easy. Well aware of these challenges, Sharon has started looking for new coalition partners, primarily in the Labor Party but also in some of the smaller ultra-Orthodox parties whose interests lie in budgetary support for their educational institutions and religion-related legislation rather than in political decisions.

This unusual parliamentary situation, however, not only puts Sharon in an awkward political position but also poses new challenges for the Labor Party and its leader, Shimon Peres. In 2002, Labor ran on a platform of unilateral disengagement from the occupied territories — if negotiations proved impossible — and lost to Sharon's Likud Party, which then opposed any such moves. What should Labor do now?

An opposition party should always try to bring down the government. But how does it handle one that in part has adopted its own platform and is in danger of being toppled by the extreme right wing?

In the 19th century, British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli characterized such a situation as stealing the clothes of an opponent while he was bathing.

Labor's response has been reasonable and responsible: It promised to provide Sharon with a parliamentary security net in the Knesset, and, in the last few weeks, it has fulfilled its pledge. But in the long term, this is extremely unsatisfactory politics, especially because many in Labor — and Peres not last among them — would dearly like to exchange their opposition-bench hard seats for soft ministerial chairs.

If Labor joins the government, Sharon will have to cough up some influential portfolios. It's difficult to imagine Peres, a former prime minister and perhaps the most experienced politician in Israel, not getting either the foreign or finance ministry. But this would mean that Sharon would have to fire or demote one of his two most influential ministers who are also future political rivals within his own party: Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom or Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This is the backdrop — where crucial decisions about the country's future will crisscross ideology and personal ambition — to the current negotiations between Likud and Labor. Parallel negotiations with ultra-Orthodox factions have also begun, and it is obvious that Sharon has more than one ball in the air. Nobody expects the talks to go smoothly or produce quick results. Israeli coalition negotiations are notorious for their excruciating length, incredibly complex maneuvers and last-minute cliffhangers.

The current mayhem in Gaza, where rival Palestinian militias are fighting each other and kidnapping each other's commanders, gives ammunition to those, both in Likud and Labor, who urge disengagement on the grounds that there is no coherent and responsible Palestinian leadership with which to negotiate.

The road map may be bumpy, but a major redrawing of Israel's political map is underway. No longer does Likud's leadership, under Sharon, stand for an unequivocal hawkish line on Jewish settlements. As a result, some right-wingers call Sharon a traitor. Meantime, Labor finds itself in the uncomfortable position of defending Sharon against his extreme right-wing critics, which many on the left can barely swallow. Regardless of the outcome of the coalition negotiations, Israeli politics will never be the same.

Shlomo Avineri is professor of political science at Hebrew University.