Help Abbas Succeed

By Yossi Beilin
Friday, January 14, 2005

The election of Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) in Palestinian voting Sunday came as no surprise. The organized election process, the lively campaign and the openness to the media have all proved once again that if a Palestinian state is established it will be the first Arab democracy. But the state has not yet been established, and the system now headed by Abbas is not much more than a stage set.

The real question is not whether Abbas is genuinely ready for peace and will start combating terrorism tomorrow but whether the United States, Europe and Israel are prepared to seize this rare opportunity: the election as Palestinian leader of a pragmatic person who has taken part in all the peace processes with Israel and who courageously came out against the use of violence in the most recent intifada.

Today Abbas does not need to prove himself. At 69, he is one of the more "transparent" politicians in the region. His books, speeches, interviews and actions are well known. Even during the most difficult moments of the recent election campaign, he went out of his way to condemn the rockets fired against Israel by Hamas, for which he and his policies came under heavy criticism from Islamic elements.

In 1995, after two years of negotiations, we agreed upon what came to be known as the Beilin-Abu Mazen Agreement. This unsigned document was to serve as the basis for the Clinton plan five years later, and to form the basis for negotiations leading up to the Geneva accord, inaugurated a year ago.

On a personal level, Abbas is a pragmatic person, but not necessarily a moderate. He has no sympathy for the Zionist enterprise, but he understood, before many of his colleagues, that the distress of the Palestinian people could be resolved through an independent state next to Israel, rather than in place of it. In principle, his permanent-status agreement is no different from Yasser Arafat's, and at the moment of truth, he may flaunt it, positioning himself as continuing Arafat's legacy. But the real question is not the principles; it is the details. In my opinion, it will be possible to reach a detailed peace agreement with Abbas.

Abbas has won the genuine and extensive support of his people for his new role. Born in Safed and himself a refugee (which means it will be easier for him to persuade refugees to accept the payment due them), he has gained the confidence of President Bush, of the Arab world, of Europe and of many Israeli citizens on both the right and left wings. He opposes violence of any type and has been struggling for a long time to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian permanent-status agreement. His election to head the Palestinian Authority represents a rare opportunity indeed.

But if from this point onward we do nothing more than wait for Abbas to move, it is an opportunity we are likely to miss. Abbas stands at the head of a system that has been destroyed over the past four years. There is no law and order in the Palestinian territories; people are afraid to leave their homes at night. Only part of the security forces obey the head of the Palestinian Authority. Half of Palestinians live under the poverty line, and unemployment is rampant. Abbas may well set up a "government," appear at assemblies, give interviews, try to reach understandings with Hamas and even make visits to other countries. But if he wants to bring about genuine change in conditions, he needs us -- not sitting on the sidelines but out there on the stage, with him.

If President Bush makes do with implementing the "road map" without updating it and setting realistic deadlines, without sending an envoy to the region to supervise and monitor events, without someone on his behalf working day and night to implement the plan that Israel and the Palestinians agreed on (each side according to its own interpretations), then Abbas will fail. Without major political vision, he will not be able to preserve his political existence.

If the Europeans do not provide assistance in financing economic plans, in rehabilitating the infrastructure and in helping the Palestinian security system to train and to function as an effective police force, Mahmoud Abbas will become history even before one of the warlords takes control of the Palestinian Authority. He must prove that he is capable of changing the day-to-day situation and that tranquility is beneficial to the Palestinians.

If Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon proceeds with the withdrawal plan from Gaza as if his partner in peace is Yasser Arafat, if the targeted assassinations continue, if the number of checkpoints is not reduced, if the parties do not return to the negotiating table to discuss the permanent-status agreement after four years during which they have not exchanged a single official word -- then it will be a waste of time to prepare profile reports on Abbas. Then we will have missed this opportunity, too. And we are so very good at missing opportunities.

The writer, a former justice minister of Israel, was initiator of the Oslo peace process. He is the leader of the Meretz/Yahad Party-SDI (Social Democratic Israel).