And It's One More Round for Sharon

Newsday

And It's One More Round for Sharon
By Reuven Y. Hazan

December 1, 2002

Israel chose its prime minister on Thursday. The general elections are still two months away, but re-electing Ariel Sharon as leader of the Likud Party guarantees his continued tenure as prime minister. As long as terrorists continue to target Israel's population, the right wing will continue to occupy the prime minister's office.

Benjamin Netanyahu lost by a 3 to 2 margin because he made every possible mistake. When he challenged Sharon, he was already behind in the polls. When he joined Sharon's government as foreign minister, he was forced to rein in his criticism. When his campaign focused on the economy, not security, he lost touch with the electorate. Then, when he called for Yasser Arafat's expulsion, he lost credibility.

Netanyahu's attempt to outflank Sharon on the right also backfired; polls showed that with Sharon, the party would win more seats in parliament due to his ability to attract floating centrist voters. Netanyahu failed to convince any Likud minister to back him. With every passing week, his campaign looked increasingly like a ship adrift, with the crew either quarrelling or jumping overboard. His magic was gone; he even ceased to come across well on television.

But the most important reason for Netanyahu's loss is that a political party rarely ousts its leader when he is occupying the highest political office in the land, regardless of how bad things are. The Republicans in the United States stuck with Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, and the Democrats kept Jimmy Carter. The difference is that Ford, Carter and Bush were shunned by the American electorate, but Sharon will be re- elected in January despite Israel's almost desperate state.

Why does a country in one of the worst periods in its history make the sitting prime minister one of the most popular in its history? Unemployment has topped 10 percent, inflation is reaching 8 percent, one-third of salaried families are under the poverty line, pensions and health care benefits have been cut, foreign investment and tourism have fled - not to mention that almost 700 Israelis have been killed and 5,000 injured since Sharon took office. What are the reasons for this political paradox, this electoral miracle?

After the governments of Sharon's two young predecessors, Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, collapsed prematurely and left little but social scars, Sharon's grandfatherly stewardship seems to be a calming factor. Arafat's continued support for terrorism has forced a war of attrition on Israel, and who better to lead in such a war than the man who made his career fighting Arafat? And Sharon's behavior while prime minister has charmed different sectors of Israeli society. Those who wanted a conciliatory leader got one when he formed a unity government with the Labor Party; those who wanted a decisive leader got one when he fired the Shas Party ministers.

What's more, Israel is in the midst of a security predicament. Will unilateral withdrawal bring calm or bring the conflict closer to Israel's major cities? Will a military assault on the Palestinians curtail terrorism or mobilize more suicide bombers? In such a predicament, Sharon's immobility passes for stability and safe ground.

Finally, Sharon is Israel's Teflon prime minister. The horrible security situation is because of Arafat, not Sharon. The horrible economic situation is because of the security situation. The horrible social situation is because of the economic situation, and so on.

Sharon is the right man at the right time. But if you look inside Israel, there are signs of a trend that point to his possible demise. An overwhelming majority of Israelis are not satisfied with the current state of affairs. They are becoming exasperated and are tiring of the endless conflict with the Palestinians. The Israeli public is slowly moving to the left and accepting the ideas of a Palestinian state, withdrawal from the territories and a return to the negotiating table. Amram Mitzna's rise to the leadership of the Labor Party creates a viable alternative to Sharon for the first time since the current conflict began.

Ariel Sharon will be 75 before he is sworn in again, and this next term in office will be his last. As long as Arafat's terrorists continue their attacks, the peace camp in Israel will remain a minority and the Israeli public will circle the wagons around Sharon. But Israelis have not given up on the prospect of living a normal life, safe from daily terrorist incidents. As soon as there is a credible alternative on the Palestinian side, Sharon's popularity could fade as quickly as it appeared.

Reuven Y. Hazan is a senior lecturer in the political science department at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.