May 17, 2002

nder increased internal and international pressure to reform the Palestinian Authority and put an end to suicide bombings, Yasir Arafat conceded this week that he has made mistakes and promised to institute change. "We are in a great need to review our policies in order to rectify and correct our march toward national independence," he said. He also repeated his opposition to attacks on Israeli civilians, saying, "These operations do not serve our interests." The words sound constructive, but advocates of reform will remain skeptical of Mr. Arafat's genuine commitment to transparency, accountability and power sharing.

A leader of the opposition in the Palestinian legislature, Abdul Jawad Saleh, said of Arafat's speech: "He's not serious. He's serious when there is pressure against him." Although Mr. Arafat is well known for loathing change, it will be hard for him to resist demands from a concerted Palestinian campaign and from the international community to fight corruption, unify the unruly security services, appoint a real cabinet with a prime minister, and establish separation of powers.

Never before has his authority been challenged as it is today. Dissent is now real and widespread among the Palestinians, and outspoken criticism of the authoritarian and corrupt ways of Mr. Arafat's leadership is resonating in the public. Most important, opposition to Mr. Arafat is intensifying among the Palestinian elite, some of whom now accuse him of "militarizing" the intifada, a move that made possible the election of Ariel Sharon as Israel's prime minister.

Particularly promising is a new awareness among many Palestinians that suicide bombings have morally undermined their legitimate cause for an independent state and have been politically and militarily devastating.

Some of Mr. Arafat's loyal aides are calling on him to lead the way out of the political stalemate and bloodshed. Last week, Muhammad Dahlan, security chief in Gaza and a possible successor to Mr. Arafat, confided to a leading Arab journalist in Al Hayat that if Mr. Arafat had accepted his recommendation to sign a cease-fire and end the armed intifada two months ago, Palestinians would have achieved major political gains. He implied that suicide bombings represented a strategic error because they brought the full brunt of the Israeli military on Palestinians' heads. Another powerful figure, Mahmoud Abbas, second in command to Mr. Arafat and a possible successor, ruefully said in Al Hayat, "Arafat should not be the only one in charge of finance."

Dissent is also brewing among the broader Palestinian public. There is considerable anger at the failures of the Palestinian Authority and the existence of personalized centers of power, each with its own agenda. National interests and nation building have been sacrificed to factional and tribal concerns. Thus Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades were able to co-opt the Palestinian Authority, gain popularity at its expense, and gradually impose their fatalistic and violent vision on a besieged Palestinian society. Voices criticizing Mr. Arafat for his indecisiveness — his either turning a blind eye to the armed intifada or actually trying to lead it — are growing louder. The information minister, Yasir Abed Rabbo, recently deplored what he described as Mr. Arafat's lack of a coherent political strategy.

Internal pressures for reforms will only intensify as the people get over their initial shock and rage in the aftermath of the Israeli military incursion. These pressures could force Mr. Arafat's hand as they converge with demands by the world community, especially the United States, for immediate reforms in the Palestinian government. Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are exerting considerable pressure on Mr. Arafat to act against suicide bombings.

Mr. Arafat, by temperament, usually refuses to lead when faced with difficult choices. But this time he will find it extremely hard to postpone taking action against internal corruption and against suicide bombings that have made him a pariah in the eyes of the Bush administration. In fact, if he does act against Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other suicide groups, many Palestinians are likely to support him. Palestinians have paid dearly for the militants' suicidal tactics, which have only empowered the hard-liners in Israel.

Hamas is already feeling the heat of Palestinian civil society. In town hall meetings and in newspaper editorials, Palestinians are debating whether to continue the intifada, end it or channel it in a nonviolent direction. Professional groups, commentators and civic leaders are becoming more vocal and critical in their questioning of the utility of suicide missions, an important change that will ostracize the militants. The Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, a group closely connected to Mr. Arafat's Fatah movement, has said it will not send more bombers into Israel to kill civilians.

Mr. Arafat enjoyed immense Palestinian support and sympathy when he was held captive under Israeli siege. But the devastated civilian population is not likely to favor him with unquestioning loyalty as people face the wreck of their cities and lives.

The big question is this: Will he offer the Palestinian people peaceful alternatives means to independence? The international community, particularly the United States, must empower Palestinian reformist voices by giving them hope. This means helping Palestinians rebuild their shattered society and their future. It is becoming clear that a just settlement with Israel and internal reform of the Palestinian Authority must go hand in hand.

Fawaz A. Gerges is a professor in international affairs and Middle Eastern studies at Sarah Lawrence College and the author of the forthcoming "The Islamists and the West."