Trudy Rubin | In Mideast, public
is willing but leaders weak
By Trudy Rubin
JERUSALEM
- Israel's military operation on the West Bank
has had a surprising impact on the home front.
The
invasion deepened Israel's occupation of the West Bank and
virtually destroyed the Palestinian government set up by
the Oslo peace process. But the military strike has also
intensified the desire of a majority of Israelis to separate
themselves from the Palestinians.
The
question is how.
The
Oslo peace process is dead, and most Israelis despise and
distrust Yasir Arafat, their former negotiating partner.
The government of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is
committed to continued occupation. Some Israeli doves, including
former foreign minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, hope that the Bush
administration unilaterally will impose a political solution
to the Palestinian problem, or even back deployment of an
international force to the West Bank. Such hopes are pipe
dreams.
More
likely is the growth of a grassroots movement that calls
for Israel to pull out of much of the West Bank unilaterally.
This week, a group of 300 former top Israeli military and
intelligence officers - called the Council for Peace and
Security - launched a campaign for unilateral Israeli separation
from Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Their idea:
Israel would pull back to a defensible line in the West
Bank and remove any Jewish settlements beyond that line,
along with all Jewish settlements in Gaza.
"We
would tell the Palestinians that at the end of the day we'll
negotiate a final status agreement when you are ready,"
says reserve Gen. Danny Rothschild, Israeli coordinator
of the occupied territories in the early 1990s. In the meantime,
Israel could better defend against terrorism by consolidating
its troops, and shrinking the numbers of Jewish settlements
it has to defend.
The
retired general hopes his group can collect a million signatures
to force Sharon and other pols to pay attention before the
2003 elections. The polls now show a slim majority supporting
unilateral separation.
There
are strong security reasons why Rothschild and other top
Israeli military men are promoting this option. Few Israeli
officers believe this month's Israeli military operation
will stop terrorism for more than a brief interval. An acquaintance
who just returned from reserve duty in Ramallah summed up
the thinking of his commanders: "The pessimists say the
terror will restart in two weeks, and the optimists say
it will take a month."
Now
that Sharon has destroyed the Palestinian Authority and
its security forces, these Israeli commanders believe it's
only a matter of time before full-fledged guerrilla war
begins. This war will incorporate thousands of armed Palestinian
police who haven't acted against Israel before now. These
commanders believe that Israel can't fight such a war simply
by destroying terrorist infrastructure but "must work at
changing Palestinian motivation."
Changing
motivation requires political talks, however, and neither
side has political leaders who are ready for serious negotiations.
Therefore, says Rothschild, it's best to pull back to defensible
lines and defend them aggressively, even building fences.
Rothschild's
arguments are bolstered by leaks to the Israeli press from
Israeli military officers who say the army can't afford
to keep defending Jewish settlements all over the West Bank.
To those who argue that unilateral withdrawal would be rewarding
terrorism, Rothschild answers sharply that he is doing what
is best for Israel - full stop.
Would
Sharon be swayed by a grassroots campaign for unilateral
withdrawal? Perhaps, but I doubt it. He just told his cabinet
he would not consider dismantling any Israeli settlement
in the West Bank or Gaza before the 2003 elections. So the
fate of unilateral withdrawal may depend on whether the
Labor Party ends its awkward participation in Sharon's coalition
government and takes up this cause.
If not,
that restless Israeli majority who want to get out of the
West Bank may be drawn further into occupation and guerrilla
war.
There
is a better option, however, than unilateral separation.
The growing pressure for separation reflects the dim prospects
for restarting Israel-Palestinian peace talks. There is
only one way such talks could be renewed: if the United
States put forward a new peace plan fleshing out a Saudi
initiative that calls for full Arab recognition of Israel
in return for Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and
Gaza.
This
is the hope of Gilead Sher, the former chief Israeli negotiator
under Ehud Barak. He is angry that Arafat botched a stellar
chance for peace in 2000 and instead opted for violence.
Yet he believes that Israel has no choice but to negotiate
a long-term solution.
"The
mistrust, hatred and retaliatory emotions are so deep,"
says Sher, "that we need someone from the outside to impose
on us a process. We need to be brought by others, the United
States or moderate Arabs, to reestablish a direct dialogue."
The
Israeli public is willing. Now if only someone would galvanize
George W. Bush.