Looking for a Mideast endgame

November 11, 2002

Its ferocity escalating over the past two years, the war between the Palestinians and the Israelis has turned into a sickening spectacle. Numbers and arguments go back and forth: How many Israelis killed by Palestinian suicide bombings here or Palestinians by Israeli retaliation there? What's missing are ideas and courage to end the bloodshed.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was elected by Israelis who were terrified by the wave of Palestinian terrorist bombings and disgusted with Yasser Arafat's unwillingness to accept a peace agreement. On Tuesday, not even two years after taking office, Sharon dissolved parliament, his governing coalition brought down by a budget dispute. But the true reason has to be Sharon's inability to deliver on either part of his "peace and security" promise and the unwillingness of the Labor Party to participate in the ongoing debacle, under the guise of a "unity government." Israel's economy is hurting too. Its tourism industry has been hobbled by the violence. A report last week said almost 20 percent of the Israeli population lives in poverty. Meanwhile, the killing goes on.

Even more dire is the plight of the Palestinians. Most of the West Bank has been reoccupied, the Israeli army killing terrorists while its bulldozers flatten buildings, the Palestinian economy and whatever may be left of Palestinian dignity.

Missing in this wasteland is leadership--by the Israelis, the Palestinians or the United States, the latter the only outsider capable of pressing for a political solution. Already campaigning against Sharon to be head of the Likud Party, newly appointed Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows to pursue a tougher line against the Palestinians, first by exiling the corrupt and ineffective Arafat. Parties further to the right would dispense altogether with any notion of Palestinian nationhood.

And where is the more conciliatory Labor Party? Just about in the same spot as the Democratic Party in the U.S. right now--an opposition without an alternative idea. Labor will have its own primary elections later this month, and two dovish candidates may bring some fresh proposals.

In a speech in June, President Bush outlined a credible roadmap toward a negotiated settlement that included a new Palestinian leadership and creation of a Palestinian state by 2005. But the Bush plan hasn't gone forward. Netanyahu said Wednesday the Bush plan is no longer "on the agenda."

The 90 days before the Israeli election also give Palestinians a chance to consider their options; the Palestinians have scheduled elections in January. What put Sharon in power was Israeli desperation with the wave of bombings by faceless and cowardly suicide terrorists. Until that subsides Israel won't negotiate.

Palestinians need new leadership: The kleptocracy of Arafat and his cronies is at a dead end. Two months ago, the Palestinian legislature threatened Arafat with a vote of no-confidence. That reformist flicker, however, was snuffed by Israeli troops who laid siege on Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah--prompting Palestinians to rally around their beleaguered leader.

Israeli occupation of the West Bank, with its daily regimen of economic hardship and humiliation of the population, is not conducive to political reforms or elections by the Palestinians. But then, the occupation isn't likely to end until the Palestinian authorities restrain terrorists in their midst.

A tragic endless-loop video if there ever was one, with the U.S. the only outsider with enough influence to break the cycle and press both sides toward a negotiated solution. The Bush proposal earlier this summer is a good starting point--but it can only move forward when the U.S. begins following a more even-handed stance. There is no point to President Bush proclaiming his support for the creation of a democratic Palestinian state while giving the Sharon government a blank check to pursue policies that undermine that goal and prolong the fighting.

The prospect of a war with Iraq is an extra incentive for the U.S. to continue pressing for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The alternative--a continuation of the war and carnage of the past few years--doesn't serve the interests of either of the bloodied combatants, and certainly not those of the United States.