Oct. 15, 2002, 5:24PM

WATER, NOT OIL

The fuse that could touch of Mideast powder keg

For long-time watchers of the Middle East it has been a truism that the shortage of water is an issue that gets relatively little discussion but has as much or more explosive potential for conflict as any in the region.

Some have maintained that the next major war in the area will be sparked by water.

Such ominous predictions may be closer to reality these days with Lebanon expected this week to open a pumping station near its southern border to divert water from Israel and supply thirsty Lebanese villages.

The disputed waterway is the Wazzani River, which flows south into the Jordan River and the Sea of Galilee, Israel's main source of water.

Israel says any siphoning of water should be limited to meeting the drinking needs of local residents and has warned Beirut that the water project will be considered a casus belli.

The former head of Israel's water commission, Dan Zazlavsky, reportedly told local newspapers the problem could be solved "with a few tank shells."

On the other side, Syria and the Hezbollah terrorist organization have threatened to step in with force against the Israelis.

The United States, France and the United Nations are attempting to mediate the dispute.

Given all the other complications in the region, it can only be hoped that the parties will take the opportunity to come to an agreement and water down the potential for new armed conflict.

A report by Eyal Zisser of the Moshe Dyan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University outlines some reasons why Israel and Lebanon should be ready to cooperate.

Water, not oil, is among the most provocative Middle East issues of the moment. Let us hope at this critical juncture that the diplomatic dam isn't allowed to burst.