URI DROMI

Israel willing to give two failures another chance

Mazel Tov -- Israelis are going to have elections in less than three months. More proof of how vibrant the Israeli democracy is.

Why, then, is no one here particularly excited? After all, one would assume that two years of intifada with no light at the end of the tunnel and a stumbling economy would be enough to send Israelis rushing to the ballots, eagerly voting for a change.

The reason for this indifference is simple: Israelis don't care, because they know perfectly well that the coming elections will not really make a difference.

Here is an Israeli paradox: In poll after poll, the majority of Israelis reflect their acceptance of a Palestinian state, living side by side with Israel. When asked about the Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, most Israelis reply that in order to reach peace, many settlements will have to be evacuated. This is not acceptable to either Ariel Sharon or Benjamin Netanyahu, who is running again. Yet in the coming elections, enough Israelis are going to vote Likud, bringing to power again either Sharon or Netanyahu.

If this is not puzzling enough, think about these two leaders: During his term, Netanyahu managed to stall the peace process until it came to a halt and brought a booming economy to an ebb. Sharon couldn't keep his campaign promise to bring security and peace to the Israelis. On the domestic front he had failed miserably: A report released last week by the Israeli Social Security Agency shows that 1.2 million Israelis are below the ''poverty line,'' which means that one out of every five Israelis is poor. During Sharon's term, this social gap has widened dramatically, with the number of unemployed growing steadily. Why, then, vote for Likud and make either Sharon or Netanyahu, both proven failures, the next prime minister?

The answer is twofold. First, the elections will not be about the real issues; they will be a horse race only. By real issues I mean asking tough questions and giving honest answers. For example: ``Assuming that in the foreseeable future, between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea there will be more Arabs than Jews; and assuming that Israel keeps its control over Judea, Samaria and Gaza and maintains its settlements there.

``In that case, Mr. Candidate, how will Israel remain both Jewish and democratic?''

Neither Sharon nor Netanyahu are likely to answer that, because they don't have a clue. Why, then, should people vote for them? Because Israelis are so disillusioned with Yasser Arafat that, in a campaign that doesn't force them to tackle the real issues, they will simply prefer a prime minister who would be tougher on the Arab front.

The second reason why Israelis are going to vote for Likud is that Labor does not look like a viable alternative. For two years, this party has sat as senior partner on Sharon's government. How can Labor leader Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, who had pulled out of the government only two weeks ago, suddenly pretend to be the opposition?

And even if Amram Mitzna, a new contender with a clearer voice, wins over the party in the Nov. 19 primaries -- which is very likely -- he is still pretty unknown. He lacks experience and will have only two months to pull Labor behind him and win the hearts and minds of the electorate. Quite an insurmountable task. Not to mention that Israelis have still to overcome their suspicion of mavericks after being so painfully disappointed by Ehud Barak.

Let Sharon or Netanyahu rule Israel a bit more, then. The harsh realities, sooner or later, force them to drop the smokescreen and start telling people the truth. Labor, in the meantime, would sharpen its messages and develop a more seasoned leadership. Therefore, it is not the coming elections that matter, but the ones following them, when we are finally ready to confront the real issues.

Uri Dromi is director of international outreach at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem.

© 2001 miamiherald and wire service sources.