Houston Chronicle

Palestinian people also left to reap the whirlwind

The low-level war between Palestinians and Israelis is much less low level after a spate of Palestinian terrorist attacks over the weekend and an Israeli military response that included a helicopter rocket attack over the Sabra neighborhood of Gaza City on Monday.

The strategic objective of the Palestinian extremists is unclear. They are pursuing a murderous intifada that has them further from their stated goal of a viable, independent state and placed them under the control of a reoccupation by Israeli Defense Forces. If there was ever a self-defeating strategy, this is it. Before the helicopter attacks, Israel banned Palestinian travel in the northern West Bank and sealed off part of the Gaza Strip.

Speculation and analysis about what's behind the intifada include: simple hatred and vengeance; an attempt to goad Israel into acts that would sway world opinion in favor of the Palestinians; an attempt to show Israel that its crackdown cannot be sustained; a belief that terrorism will wear down the Israelis and force a withdrawal, as in southern Lebanon; a behind-the-scenes, wider, concerted effort by Iraq, Syria and others to undermine the long-term security of Israel; or all of the above -- and more.

"Such a tornado of terrorists that you cannot hold it," Israel's Deputy Defense Minister David Melchior, a rabbi, told the Chronicle Editorial Board Monday. "It slips through your fingers."

Israel, for its part, continues to weigh its options, but the spiral of violence should make clear to all sides that violence is not a means to the end.

Among those options, Melchior said, is "a general decision to do everything possible to ease up on [the Palestinians'] humanitarian situation."

But he said the most recent violence might prevent Israel from carrying out that decision, which includes releasing to the Palestinian Authority money collected as customs duty and taxes on the Palestinians and an expansion of the work-permit program.

The trick for Israel is to take such measures in ways that lessen the oppression on the Palestinian people without being seen to be capitulating to terrorism.

That task is part of what Melchior, in a pique of understatement, called Israel's "intense dilemma."

One measure by which the Palestinians might judge their tactics -- since discernible progress toward independence seems to have been discarded -- is in the shift of Israeli public opinion.

Two new polls, an ongoing one by the Steinmetz Institute for Peace at Tel Aviv University and an annual one by the Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies, might prove useful.

About half of the Jewish public in Israel now tends to describe itself as rightist in its view of foreign and security affairs, according to the Steinmetz poll. Where the struggle against Palestinian terror is concerned, the poll indicates the Jewish public's widespread support (62 percent) for the policy of targeted liquidations, also in cases in which it can be reasonably assumed that Palestinian civilians will be affected.

Likewise, the Jaffee study says the primary finding to emerge from its data is that Israeli positions have continued to shift to the right during 2002, as the Palestinian terror campaign has widened. "Responses indicate a shift to less conciliatory postures on almost all issues," the study's executive summary states.

Furthermore, the study reports, the notion of transfer [or deportation] of Arabs has reappeared in the political debate, with 46 percent supporting the transfer of Palestinians who live in the territories and 31 percent in favor of the transfer of Israeli Arabs.

Both surveys are more complex than this description. The Steinmetz poll, for example, points out that at the same time many anti-Palestinian positions have hardened among Israelis, "the majority would like to see Israel's government take practical measures to ease the suffering of the Palestinian population in the territories."

But the larger point is still the same. The region is becoming more polarized in its attitudes, and the obstacles to Palestinians' legitimate aspirations are growing.

The inescapable conclusion for the Palestinian leadership is that what it is doing is not only not working, but also victimizing the Palestinian people.