Trudy
Rubin | Jump-starting peace
Jordan's
King Abdullah wants more shape to U.S. plans.
By Trudy Rubin
AMMAN,
Jordan - It
seems the only leaders who are serious about reviving the
Mideast peace process are the rulers of moderate Arab states.
Ariel
Sharon and Yasir Arafat are busy with their personal vendettas,
which have reversed decades of halting progress toward Mideast
peace. President Bush dithers and undercuts efforts by Secretary
of State Colin Powell.
All
this gives special importance to the upcoming visit of Jordan's
King Abdullah with President Bush.
The
40-year-old king will try to convince the President that
only the United States can jump-start a new peace process.
"The
world has figured out what has to be done, but unless the
American administration puts its full weight behind it,
it'll never happen," Abdullah said in an interview in his
palace office. (Almost every room in the building displays
a painting of Abdullah with his late father, the legendary
King Hussein.)
What
"the world has figured out" is that peace will require a
Palestinian state more or less along 1967 lines in the West
Bank and Gaza, along with security guarantees for Israel.
This is the gist of a peace initiative put forward by Saudi
Crown Prince Abdullah, which offers Israel full and normal
relations with all Arab states.
The
Saudi plan was endorsed by all Arab states and, in principle,
by the Bush administration. But it remains a vision bereft
of a roadmap or a time line to translate it into reality.
Jordan's King Abdullah wants to offer President Bush ideas
on how the Saudi vision could be made operational.
The
first requirement is to convince President Bush that Israel's
security cannot be guaranteed solely by military action,
such as Sharon's incursions into the West Bank.
"Our
job is to limit the damage that extremists on both sides
can do by getting to the political process as quickly as
possible," the king insisted. "The quicker you move on the
political side of the problem, the easier it is for us to
deal with the terrorist and extremist elements."
Until
now the Bush approach has been the opposite: Focus first
on stopping all violence and implementing the "Tenet plan"
for a cease-fire.
After
the Israeli invasion of the West Bank, such an approach
has become "irrelevant," says King Abdullah. Palestinian
rage and Israeli fear can be assuaged only by abandoning
talks on interim agreements and going straight to negotiations
for a final peace.
This
isn't as far-fetched as it may sound. Both Israeli and Palestinian
publics are so exhausted that they would probably respond
to a concrete plan. But no such plan could succeed unless
the United States joined forces with moderate Arab leaders
to arm-twist reluctant leaders. Bush would have to deliver
Sharon for serious bargaining on a final peace agreement;
the Arabs would have to deliver Arafat.
Could
the Jordanians, Egyptians and Saudis actually corral the
wily Palestinian?
"That's
always been the million-dollar question," says Abdullah.
At the point when there emerges a plan that offers Palestinians
a state, Arab leaders might address the Palestinian people
directly.
"Arafat
is going to understand the opportunities," Abdullah says,
"if we make them available to him."
King
Abdullah is certainly motivated to help deliver Arafat.
When the young monarch came to the throne, his focus was
on modernizing Jordan's economy. He has a cabinet filled
with talented young technocrats who are determined to create
a high-tech haven that will be a model for the Middle East.
The kingdom recently became a member of the World Trade
Organization.
But
Jordan, whose population is at least 60 percent Palestinian,
is deeply affected - emotionally and economically - by the
violence next door. Growth and investment are slowed. The
middle and upper classes have soured on the peace process.
There is pressure on King Abdullah to abrogate his peace
treaty with Israel, pressure which, until now, he has firmly
resisted.
And
there are fears that Sharon's policies could drive a flood
of Palestinian refugees across the border into Jordan.
"Under
no circumstances will we allow an exodus into Jordan," says
King Abdullah. "Our borders would be shut immediately; that
is the quickest way to bring two countries that have peace
with each other into direct conflict."
So the
king hopes to persuade George W. Bush to try some creative
diplomacy. Abdullah has cachet with Bush; the king immediately
endorsed the war on terrorism after Sept. 11, and Jordan
has provided valuable security cooperation to both the United
States and Israel.
Abdullah
will tell Bush that "the inactivity of U.S. policy [in the
region] and the appearance of an unbalanced approach have
just fed terrorism" by letting the West Bank situation slide
towards full-scale guerrilla war. He will warn that continued
U.S. passivity will contribute to upheaval in the region
- "and all of us will pay the price, including Israel, including
the United States."
He will
be looking for promises of U.S. action, not platitudes or
palliative measures. Wish him luck.