Posted on Wed, May. 01, 2002
Trudy Rubin | Jump-starting peace

Jordan's King Abdullah wants more shape to U.S. plans.

It seems the only leaders who are serious about reviving the Mideast peace process are the rulers of moderate Arab states.

Ariel Sharon and Yasir Arafat are busy with their personal vendettas, which have reversed decades of halting progress toward Mideast peace. President Bush dithers and undercuts efforts by Secretary of State Colin Powell.

All this gives special importance to the upcoming visit of Jordan's King Abdullah with President Bush.

The 40-year-old king will try to convince the President that only the United States can jump-start a new peace process.

"The world has figured out what has to be done, but unless the American administration puts its full weight behind it, it'll never happen," Abdullah said in an interview in his palace office. (Almost every room in the building displays a painting of Abdullah with his late father, the legendary King Hussein.)

What "the world has figured out" is that peace will require a Palestinian state more or less along 1967 lines in the West Bank and Gaza, along with security guarantees for Israel. This is the gist of a peace initiative put forward by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, which offers Israel full and normal relations with all Arab states.

The Saudi plan was endorsed by all Arab states and, in principle, by the Bush administration. But it remains a vision bereft of a roadmap or a time line to translate it into reality. Jordan's King Abdullah wants to offer President Bush ideas on how the Saudi vision could be made operational.

The first requirement is to convince President Bush that Israel's security cannot be guaranteed solely by military action, such as Sharon's incursions into the West Bank.

"Our job is to limit the damage that extremists on both sides can do by getting to the political process as quickly as possible," the king insisted. "The quicker you move on the political side of the problem, the easier it is for us to deal with the terrorist and extremist elements."

Until now the Bush approach has been the opposite: Focus first on stopping all violence and implementing the "Tenet plan" for a cease-fire.

After the Israeli invasion of the West Bank, such an approach has become "irrelevant," says King Abdullah. Palestinian rage and Israeli fear can be assuaged only by abandoning talks on interim agreements and going straight to negotiations for a final peace.

This isn't as far-fetched as it may sound. Both Israeli and Palestinian publics are so exhausted that they would probably respond to a concrete plan. But no such plan could succeed unless the United States joined forces with moderate Arab leaders to arm-twist reluctant leaders. Bush would have to deliver Sharon for serious bargaining on a final peace agreement; the Arabs would have to deliver Arafat.

Could the Jordanians, Egyptians and Saudis actually corral the wily Palestinian?

"That's always been the million-dollar question," says Abdullah. At the point when there emerges a plan that offers Palestinians a state, Arab leaders might address the Palestinian people directly.

"Arafat is going to understand the opportunities," Abdullah says, "if we make them available to him."

King Abdullah is certainly motivated to help deliver Arafat. When the young monarch came to the throne, his focus was on modernizing Jordan's economy. He has a cabinet filled with talented young technocrats who are determined to create a high-tech haven that will be a model for the Middle East. The kingdom recently became a member of the World Trade Organization.

But Jordan, whose population is at least 60 percent Palestinian, is deeply affected - emotionally and economically - by the violence next door. Growth and investment are slowed. The middle and upper classes have soured on the peace process. There is pressure on King Abdullah to abrogate his peace treaty with Israel, pressure which, until now, he has firmly resisted.

And there are fears that Sharon's policies could drive a flood of Palestinian refugees across the border into Jordan.

"Under no circumstances will we allow an exodus into Jordan," says King Abdullah. "Our borders would be shut immediately; that is the quickest way to bring two countries that have peace with each other into direct conflict."

So the king hopes to persuade George W. Bush to try some creative diplomacy. Abdullah has cachet with Bush; the king immediately endorsed the war on terrorism after Sept. 11, and Jordan has provided valuable security cooperation to both the United States and Israel.

Abdullah will tell Bush that "the inactivity of U.S. policy [in the region] and the appearance of an unbalanced approach have just fed terrorism" by letting the West Bank situation slide towards full-scale guerrilla war. He will warn that continued U.S. passivity will contribute to upheaval in the region - "and all of us will pay the price, including Israel, including the United States."

He will be looking for promises of U.S. action, not platitudes or palliative measures. Wish him luck.


Contact Trudy Rubin at 215-854-5823 or trubin@phillynews.com.